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Bitcoin may be resetting to its Q1 market

June 9, 2021
  • The bitcoin price is now back at levels from late January 2021, the time that large, new bitcoin investors started to sell after their rapid acquisition of 1.1 million bitcoin from late September propelled the bitcoin price from $11k to as high as $43k. Were prices above $50k since then supported by more than hype?
  • Realized losses since 10 May have been limited, at $2 billion for investors acquiring in the last 3 months and $10 billion for services (primarily exchanges), while being minimal for other investor groups in aggregate. So overall, investors appear to be holding, even if they are not buying much, suggesting conviction in bitcoin from earlier in the year continues.
  • However, outflows from crypto-to-fiat exchanges to self-hosted wallets declined from mid-March. So when prices were at their highest, investor accumulation was at its lowest. This suggests the price in April was driven by an illiquid market and a lot of hype, rather than institutional buying.
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